higginbottom.com

Despite all the great minds involved in the campaign such as James Carville, Terry McAuliffe, Harold Ickes, and both Clintons (see the rest here), their Achilles heel did them in. And what was that? Arrogance!

Their original plan appears to have been:

1. Raise a bunch of money from a few rich donors
2. Make speeches carefully worded to pander to voters without saying anything substantive that might be used against her
3. Put an organization in place to go after the big primaries, and ignore those annoying little caucus states for the most part
4. Be so far ahead after ‘Super Tuesday’ (Feb 5, 2008, a day that will live in infamy) that money will continue to roll in for the general election and coast to the nomination and crowning!

So what went wrong? Well everything really! Obama won the first ‘event’, a caucus, in Iowa. I’m sure the Clinton team thought “pfft, it’s a caucus, big deal, and we only just lost (well, ok, third), and we’ll be ahead shortly, stay the course”. She wins New Hampshire and they must feel like they’re back on track (remember ‘comeback kid’ in 1991?). February 5 comes along, and she doesn’t get the big lead. Money is POURING into the Obama campaign and the organizations are getting put together in EVERY state. Maybe they realized team Clinton had ignored the caucuses and went after those. Edwards doesn’t drop out which probably hurt Clinton further.

After a string of losses in caucuses and small state primaries, despite winning some HUGE STATES (CA, NY, PA, TX sorta, etc.), she still found herself behind, but the strategy had STILL NOT CHANGED except perhaps by highlighting her ‘experience’ over Obama’s message of ‘change’. ‘Experience’ came across as “more of the same” and “old”. Meanwhile Obama got a GIGANTIC push from Oprah Winfrey. “He is the one” she said, over and over. The crowd went nuts. Even I got goosebumps.

After it was already too late, her stump speeches began to get more specific, less boring, and less condescending and self-congratulatory. After agreeing that the results in Florida and Michigan, two HUGE and IMPORTANT states, wouldn’t count because they moved their primaries before Super Tuesday, team Clinton THEN decides they want to fight for them. Everyone saw through this as typical Clinton old school spin. But it was too late. Despite Obama scandals and distractions, he would not be denied. CNN, NBC, MSNBC, most bloggers, and idealistic twenty somethings had already fallen madly in love with him.

And then there’s Bill. The ex-President who is loved by so many as the creator of peace and prosperity in the 90’s. Well he quickly reminded people he has a temper and a mean streak too, and, like Hillary, is astoundingly arrogant. He did his wife NO FAVORS in this campaign, and without question cost her a ton of votes.

Other nails in the coffin were Hillary and Bill’s ‘flubs’, probably the most notable was her claiming to have landed in Bosnia under sniper fire when video showed she was greeted casually by smiling children with flowers! Unfairly or not, I think in people’s minds this might have subconsciously become linked to Bill’s “I did not have sex with that woman…” finger wagging bold faced lie. So she faced a credibility gap too.

And so today she finally conceded. Ms. “Inevitable” barely smiled. She wanted the speech to be historic, but it was still painful for her to deliver. She now clearly wants the VP spot, and I currently think it WOULD help Obama win the Presidency, BUT once he’d won it, then he’d have to put up with Hillary AND Bill for 4 or 8 years, a prospect he is no doubt thinking about.

It’s incredible that she and her oh so talented team blew this perfect opportunity. It just shows… you never know.

I have conflicted feelings about this. On the one hand I am glad she lost as I don’t like the calculating, cynical, manipulative, poll-driven way the Clintons operate. On the other hand, I’m sure this loss is very painful for Hillary Clinton and I feel bad for her. I do believe she was treated VERY poorly by the media.

I no longer care whether Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, or John McCain wins the November election.  I don’t think any of them is really inspiring or going to make much of a difference in this global economy.  And if more significant terrorism occurs, all the campaign promises will go out of the window anyway.

I’m still wading through “Dreams of my father” by Barack Obama, a dreary, depressing book so far.

Maybe it will get more interesting when the Obama/Clinton battle is officially over and the McCain vs. Dem. debates occur.

Rolling Stone Magazine has published a great article endorsing Barack Obama for President. While I don’t agree with everything the article’s author, Jann Wenner, has written, or everything Barack Obama says for that matter, Barack Obama is very compelling, seems to be the real deal, and this article lays it out very nicely.

The article also lays out nicely why Hillary Clinton’s “skills” and her campaign are so lacking. Despite her, her husband, and surrounding team having just about all the credentials and contacts anyone could dream of, they have almost succeeded in snatching defeat from a certain victory.

The Rolling Stone piece also mentions Barack Obama’s semi-autobiographical book, Dreams from My Father, which I just ordered from Amazon.com.

Read the rest of this entry »

Regardless of the resulting delegate counts, team Clinton will spin the results that Hillary is back, in charge, and ‘inevitable’.

It was a great day for her, and with a very strong win in Ohio, it seems likely she will win the next big prize, Pennsylvania, especially since governor Rendell has endorsed here.

What does this mean? Read the rest of this entry »

The Texas and Ohio primaries are on Tuesday and if Hillary doesn’t win both, she’s in big trouble and even if she does win both, she needs to win by reasonable margins or the overall delegate race won’t change much. Hard to believe any polls at this time since they’ve been wrong so often and besides, who wants to talk to a pollster at this point? And if I see one more Frank Luntz ‘group’ evaluation on FoxNews I’ll puke since they’ve all been meaningless fluff.

I consider it unlikely Obama will win both states, especially since the governor of Ohio has endorsed Clinton, but if he does, and considering that Bill Clinton has already basically said his wife must win both states, will she gracefully bow out QUICKLY? Read the rest of this entry »

Having just re-started my blog I didn’t get to ramble about the fun to date, but now we’re down to Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama on the Democrat side, and John McCain on the Republican side. Oh yes, and now Ralph Nader as an independent.

Hillary Clinton (and Bill) are certainly not about to go down without a fight, but she’s looking increasingly like a flailing wrestler pinned to the floor. She’s being outspent, outperformed, and outclassed. You’ve got to hand it to Barack Obama and his team - they’ve done an amazing job. It’s not over yet, but if Hillary Clinton doesn’t win the Democrat nomination, I think it’s safe to say she blew it in many ways. Let’s go through some. Read the rest of this entry »